European election polls: Glucksmann and Maréchal make a breakthrough, France Insoumise collapses 

13 April 2024 / Interviews

Two months before the 2024 European elections, a recent YouGov poll published by HuffPost reveals interesting trends in the French political landscape. Although the leading trio remains stable, significant changes are looming behind them.

The National Rally, led by Jordan Bardella, maintains a solid lead with 29% of voting intentions, thus exceeding its 2019 score. On the other hand, the list of the presidential majority, led by Valérie Hayer, stagnates at 19%, below from Nathalie Loiseau's previous score five years ago.

The positive dynamic is felt on the left, with Raphaël Glucksmann gaining two points compared to the previous month. Its PS-Place Publique list now displays 12% voting intentions, almost double its 2019 score.

Marion Maréchal and François-Xavier Bellamy are competing for a similar electorate. Reconquest, led by Maréchal, gained four points to reach 9%, thus overtaking Les Républicains, led by Bellamy, who stagnated at 7%.

Other left-wing lists, such as that of Marie Toussaint and the ecologists, as well as that of Manon Aubry for France Insoumise, are struggling to exceed 6% of voting intentions, a threshold necessary to obtain elected representatives to the European Parliament .

However, none of the other lists tested, including that of the Communist Party, managed to cross the 3% threshold, necessary to benefit from reimbursement of campaign expenses.

The survey, conducted from April 3 to 9 among 1028 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over registered on the electoral lists, offers an overview of current trends in the run-up to the European elections.