European Survey 2024: the RN is progressing, Renaissance is slipping

01 June 2024 / Jerome Goulon

In a Cluster17 survey for The Point published this Saturday, June 1, Jordan Bardella is more than ever at the top of voting intentions, while the presidential majority candidate, Valérie Hayer, is slipping. Here is the main information to remember from this latest survey, according to Cluster17:

Jordan Bardella's list reaches the 30% mark for the first time in our wave of voting intentions this week. Less than 10 days before the election, the RN seems poised for victory with a more than comfortable lead. 

Valérie Hayer is in difficulty in this campaign. Only 3% of respondents believe that she is carrying out the best campaign, far behind Jordan Bardella (32%) or his socialist competitor Raphaël Glucksmann (13%). Probably poorly identified, she struggles to make a singular voice heard in this campaign.

While PS / Place Publique list led by Raphaël Glucksmann had been dynamic for several weeks, this seems to be fading. The Socialist Party also lost 0,5 points and is still 2 points behind Renaissance with 13,5% of voting intentions. 

France Insoumise remains comfortably installed in 4th place with 8% of voting intentions. Its base seems solid within a radical left demanding a break. Conversely, no start for the Ecologist list. With 5% voting intentions, the Greens are more than ever threatened with disappearance within the European Parliament.

On the right, François-Xavier Bellamy's campaign seems to be working. The Republicans gained 0,5 points this week. With 7% of voting intentions, they are ahead of Reconquest, stable with 6% of the vote. The LR manage to reconstitute as best they can their electoral hard coreWhile at the start of the campaign, the Pécresse 2022 vote was widely dispersed between Renaissance, the RN and Reconquest, voters seem to be turning again towards the head of the LR list, although 26% remain wanting to vote for the RN.

Find the full survey instructions here: https://cluster17.com/sondage-elections-europeennes-cluster17-pour-le-point-le-rassemblement-national-progresse-renaissance-patine/

Find the Point article here: https://www.lepoint.fr/politique/europeennes-2024-le-rn-progresse-renaissance-patine-01-06-2024-2561699_20.php