Algerian presidential election: Tebboune on course for a second term despite low turnout

Algerians are awaiting this Sunday, September 8, 2024, the final results of the presidential election held the day before, where Abdelmadjid Tebboune is expected to be re-elected for a second term. The participation in the vote, although improved compared to 2019, remained moderate.

Mohamed Charfi, president of the Anie electoral authority, announced late at night a preliminary turnout of 48,03%, after polling stations closed at 20:00 p.m. However, the exact number of voters out of the more than 24 million registered has not been specified, and the final rate as well as the results should be known during the day.

Turnout was the real issue in this election. Tebboune, elected in 2019 with 58% of the vote but a low turnout of 39,83%, was this time seeking to strengthen his legitimacy. During his first election, he faced a tense climate marked by the pro-democracy Hirak protests, which led to the fall of former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

Despite a low turnout at polling stations on Saturday and an estimated turnout of just 26% at midday, Anie had extended the vote by an hour. Tebboune was the clear favourite even before the vote, supported by several major political parties, including the National Liberation Front (FLN), the former single party.

Opposite, two candidates tried to challenge him: Abdelaali Hassani, leader of the Movement of Society for Peace (MSP, Islamist party), and Youcef Aouchiche, leader of the Front of Socialist Forces (FFS). All three focused their campaigns on the revival of the economy, heavily dependent on hydrocarbons, and the improvement of purchasing power.

Against a backdrop of economic promises, Tebboune, supported by revenues from natural gas, aims to make Algeria the second economic power in Africa, after South Africa. However, the abstention of young people, despite free public transport, marked the election.

For Hasni Abidi, an analyst and director of the Cermam Study Center in Geneva, the low turnout can be explained by a "mediocre campaign" and an unconvincing opposition. He believes that, despite his likely victory, Tebboune will have to reform his governance and tackle democratic challenges to overcome a deficit in popular support. His rivals, notably Youcef Aouchiche, have called for more rights and freedoms, promising an amnesty for prisoners of conscience.

The NGO Amnesty International recently denounced the continued repression of dissident voices in Algeria, an issue that could pose a problem for Tebboune during his second term, while dozens of pro-Hirak activists remain imprisoned.

In short, while Tebboune appears set to retain power, he will have to contend with weak popular support and growing pressure for political and social reforms.