Michel Barnier: between alliances and political balances
As the new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, struggles to form a balanced and renewed government, he faces increasing pressure from both the right, his political family, and from Macronists who want to limit his influence. Budget deadlines are fast approaching, and Barnier must skillfully navigate these different interests.
This week, the Prime Minister stepped up his consultations, meeting with leading figures of the Republicans, such as Gérard Larcher, Bruno Retailleau and Laurent Wauquiez. The latter are demanding nearly a third of the ministries, arguing that their political weight in Parliament allows them to put forward their proposals on crucial issues such as security, immigration and budgetary balance.
Barnier is aware of the need to maintain a political balance. His predecessor, Gabriel Attal, stressed the importance of also including voices from the central bloc in the future government. However, this approach could create disappointments, both among right-wing allies and in the rest of the government. Barnier thus finds himself in a complex equation: satisfying the ambitions of the Republicans while integrating members of the center to avoid an imbalance.
The timetable is tight, with the finance bill due to be presented to the National Assembly on October 1. Barnier plans to unveil his government by the end of the week, although there are signs that the date could be pushed back.
The appetites of the right
Within the Republicans, Wauquiez and Retailleau are pushing for a "real right-wing policy." Their appetite for ministerial posts could disrupt negotiations with centrist partners. François Bayrou, president of the MoDem, has warned against a government too dominated by the right, saying that this could harm the stability of the executive.
Barnier is also attentive to the concerns of Renaissance MPs, some of whom are wary of a government led by a former member of the Republicans. This climate of distrust could lead to internal tensions, especially if contested measures on immigration are put forward.
On the other hand, Barnier seems to have won the support of the Horizons movement, led by Édouard Philippe. Horizons parliamentarians display unity of support for the new Prime Minister, stressing the importance of constructive dialogue and a method of governance inspired by Brussels. They aspire to integrate members of their movement into the government.
However, this support may not be enough to offset the growing divisions within Renaissance, where fault lines are beginning to emerge. MPs are expressing concerns about their place in the new political configuration, fearing that their loyalty to the President of the Republic is weakening.
The art of compromise
Michel Barnier thus finds himself at a crossroads. He must form a government that not only reflects his alliances with the right and the centre, but that will also meet the expectations of an increasingly demanding electorate. With strategic choices to make and inevitable compromises, Barnier will have to navigate carefully to prevent tensions from overriding his government's objectives. The challenge of building an effective executive, while maintaining the cohesion of the different political factions, will undoubtedly be one of his most delicate missions in the months to come.
